Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020
Identifieur interne : 000343 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000342; suivant : 000344Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020
Auteurs : Kimberlyn Roosa ; Yiseul Lee ; Ruiyan Luo ; Alexander Kirpich ; Richard Rothenberg ; James M. Hyman ; Ping Yan ; Gerardo ChowellSource :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.
Url:
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020596
PubMed: 32098289
PubMed Central: 7073898
Affiliations:
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Hyman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00596">Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA;<email>mhyman@tulane.edu</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yan, Ping" sort="Yan, Ping" uniqKey="Yan P" first="Ping" last="Yan">Ping Yan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00596">Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada;<email>ping.yan@canada.ca</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00596">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA;<email>ylee97@gsu.edu</email> (Y.L.);<email>rluo@gsu.edu</email> (R.L.);<email>akirpich@gsu.edu</email> (A.K.);<email>rrothenberg@gsu.edu</email> 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Roosa</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00596">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA;<email>ylee97@gsu.edu</email> (Y.L.);<email>rluo@gsu.edu</email> (R.L.);<email>akirpich@gsu.edu</email> (A.K.);<email>rrothenberg@gsu.edu</email> (R.R.);<email>gchowell@gsu.edu</email> (G.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Yiseul" sort="Lee, Yiseul" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yiseul" last="Lee">Yiseul Lee</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00596">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA;<email>ylee97@gsu.edu</email> (Y.L.);<email>rluo@gsu.edu</email> (R.L.);<email>akirpich@gsu.edu</email> (A.K.);<email>rrothenberg@gsu.edu</email> (R.R.);<email>gchowell@gsu.edu</email> (G.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, Ruiyan" sort="Luo, Ruiyan" uniqKey="Luo R" first="Ruiyan" last="Luo">Ruiyan Luo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00596">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA;<email>ylee97@gsu.edu</email> (Y.L.);<email>rluo@gsu.edu</email> (R.L.);<email>akirpich@gsu.edu</email> (A.K.);<email>rrothenberg@gsu.edu</email> (R.R.);<email>gchowell@gsu.edu</email> (G.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kirpich, Alexander" sort="Kirpich, Alexander" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="Alexander" last="Kirpich">Alexander Kirpich</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00596">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA;<email>ylee97@gsu.edu</email> (Y.L.);<email>rluo@gsu.edu</email> (R.L.);<email>akirpich@gsu.edu</email> (A.K.);<email>rrothenberg@gsu.edu</email> (R.R.);<email>gchowell@gsu.edu</email> (G.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rothenberg, Richard" sort="Rothenberg, Richard" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="Richard" last="Rothenberg">Richard Rothenberg</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00596">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA;<email>ylee97@gsu.edu</email> (Y.L.);<email>rluo@gsu.edu</email> (R.L.);<email>akirpich@gsu.edu</email> (A.K.);<email>rrothenberg@gsu.edu</email> (R.R.);<email>gchowell@gsu.edu</email> (G.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M." last="Hyman">James M. Hyman</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00596">Department of Mathematics, Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA;<email>mhyman@tulane.edu</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yan, Ping" sort="Yan, Ping" uniqKey="Yan P" first="Ping" last="Yan">Ping Yan</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00596">Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada;<email>ping.yan@canada.ca</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00596">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA;<email>ylee97@gsu.edu</email> (Y.L.);<email>rluo@gsu.edu</email> (R.L.);<email>akirpich@gsu.edu</email> (A.K.);<email>rrothenberg@gsu.edu</email> (R.R.);<email>gchowell@gsu.edu</email> (G.C.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5- and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Li, Q" uniqKey="Li Q">Q. Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, X" uniqKey="Guan X">X. Guan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X. 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Lin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, C" uniqKey="Xu C">C. Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Romero Severson, E" uniqKey="Romero Severson E">E. Romero-Severson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hengartner, N" uniqKey="Hengartner N">N. Hengartner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ke, R" uniqKey="Ke R">R. Ke</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Pell, B" uniqKey="Pell B">B. Pell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kuang, Y" uniqKey="Kuang Y">Y. Kuang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hincapie Palacio, D" uniqKey="Hincapie Palacio D">D. Hincapie-Palacio</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ospina, J" uniqKey="Ospina J">J. 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Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tariq, A" uniqKey="Tariq A">A. Tariq</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hyman, J M" uniqKey="Hyman J">J.M. Hyman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wang, X S" uniqKey="Wang X">X.-S. Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y. Yang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K">K. Roosa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Y" uniqKey="Lee Y">Y. Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, R" uniqKey="Luo R">R. Luo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kirpich, A" uniqKey="Kirpich A">A. Kirpich</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rothenberg, R" uniqKey="Rothenberg R">R. Rothenberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hyman, J" uniqKey="Hyman J">J. Hyman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yan, P" uniqKey="Yan P">P. Yan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Richards, F" uniqKey="Richards F">F. Richards</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K">K. Roosa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Abdirizak, F" uniqKey="Abdirizak F">F. Abdirizak</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, S" uniqKey="Lee S">S. Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, J" uniqKey="Lee J">J. Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, E" uniqKey="Jung E">E. Jung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H. Nishiura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L. Simonsen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, R" uniqKey="Luo R">R. Luo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, K" uniqKey="Sun K">K. Sun</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K">K. Roosa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tariq, A" uniqKey="Tariq A">A. Tariq</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C. Viboud</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K">K. Roosa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, R" uniqKey="Luo R">R. Luo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ganyani, T" uniqKey="Ganyani T">T. Ganyani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roosa, K" uniqKey="Roosa K">K. Roosa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Faes, C" uniqKey="Faes C">C. Faes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hens, N" uniqKey="Hens N">N. Hens</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G. Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M." last="Hyman">James M. Hyman</name><name sortKey="Kirpich, Alexander" sort="Kirpich, Alexander" uniqKey="Kirpich A" first="Alexander" last="Kirpich">Alexander Kirpich</name><name sortKey="Lee, Yiseul" sort="Lee, Yiseul" uniqKey="Lee Y" first="Yiseul" last="Lee">Yiseul Lee</name><name sortKey="Luo, Ruiyan" sort="Luo, Ruiyan" uniqKey="Luo R" first="Ruiyan" last="Luo">Ruiyan Luo</name><name sortKey="Roosa, Kimberlyn" sort="Roosa, Kimberlyn" uniqKey="Roosa K" first="Kimberlyn" last="Roosa">Kimberlyn Roosa</name><name sortKey="Rothenberg, Richard" sort="Rothenberg, Richard" uniqKey="Rothenberg R" first="Richard" last="Rothenberg">Richard Rothenberg</name><name sortKey="Yan, Ping" sort="Yan, Ping" uniqKey="Yan P" first="Ping" last="Yan">Ping Yan</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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